Q: Welcome back, Mr. Hoenlein. 

Where is this Malaysia Airlines flight that has officially disappeared? Can you update us? Is the situation in Israel as serious as some have reported? Is Israel really under higher alert now that there is a missing jetliner out there?

A: Yes, there is a higher alert, but that is really more for people who monitor Israel’s skies and watch for suspicious planes.

The concern was that somebody provided this plane to be used in a terrorist attack. They may have had some information about the background of the people involved which raised this concern, especially given that the plane came from Malaysia. The concern wasn’t only in Israel. Many other places took precautions and engaged in greater scrutiny of flight patterns. There was even a report from Australia now that the first planes came back and couldn’t find what had been seen on the satellite, so the mystery continues.

 

Q: Doesn’t the theory seem a little bit far-fetched that this might be linked to terrorism? If someone did in fact want access to a plane for some type of terror attack, there are probably easier ways to obtain one than to hijack a plane with hundreds of people aboard.

A: Certainly, there are ways that they can buy airplanes but then there is a record of it. Here the feeling was that this was going to be taken to some isolated place and painted for use in a terrorist plot. It’s all speculative and nobody has a real understanding or theory about what happened. As far as I know from the security people we spoke to, right now nobody has a clue. I am not given to buying into conspiracy theories but this really raises many questions.

 

The mystery has only grown over the days since the disappearance.

Q: You probably know less now than when you started reading about the story.

A: Exactly. Every day it seems they know less than they knew. At first there were some theories tied to the disabling of the guidance systems and navigational systems, and then they said that something is missing from the simulator that the pilot had in his house and that it has been reprogrammed. The mystery has only grown over the days since the disappearance.

 

If a pilot wants to shut off all the systems and wants to evade the monitoring devices, it can be done.

Q: Because of your travels and your connections, you are well-acquainted with the sophistication or lack thereof of parallel departments in other countries compared to the US. Is it fair to say that if this would have happened to a US plane or closer to this area of the world, our technology certainly would never have been fooled to the point that the Malaysian technology was?

A: If someone wants to bypass the systems that have been set up, it seems it is possible to do it. Don’t forget that this was over a vast area of water and it cut across areas of different satellites’ coverage. Obviously, over the United States there is far more coverage that would have detected such an aberrant behavior pattern. But if a pilot wants to shut off all the systems and wants to evade the monitoring devices, it can be done. But it is hard to hide a plane that size in a country like ours or in most of Europe.

 

Q: There was a vote in Crimea, correct? They did vote to become part of Russia.

A: They did vote and they will become a part of Russia.

 

Q: Does the US have a right to not recognize the results of that vote?

A: Every country has a right to declare that it was illegal, that it was not appropriate, and that it was staged. But the fact is that the overwhelming results were for association with Russia. It is moving ahead and we may see other moves by Russia follow if the West is not resolute in its response.

By and large, the response has been so weak and minimal to what appears to be the usurpation of land.

The EU moved to sign an association agreement with the Ukraine. I don’t think it is a full association accord. My understanding is that it would probably have the elements of membership but, not the full status. It is a message and it is a further escalation of the challenge between the two sides.

The United States announced the second round of sanctions against Russian individuals. Most of them have dismissed the impact. One bank was named. The Europeans are also working on their own set of sanctions. By and large, the response has been minimal to what appears to be the usurpation of land. Certainly no one can claim that there has been adequate due process, even with the referendum. The sanctions can have a direct or indirect impact and will be felt. But Putin will not yield because of them. This is his vision and he was worked to expand Russian influences in the former Soviet areas. This was well planned.

It sends a message and that is the big problem. It is not just what happened in Crimea. This was related obviously to what happened years ago in Georgia when the West did not stop Russia’s occupation. It’s also related to what happened in Syria when we backed down from military action. The message is out, so China will heat things up with the islands. North Korea will fire missiles into the sea. I met with Korean officials yesterday and they are very concerned about the ramifications. We don’t necessarily think about what happens in the furthest parts of Asia. As I have said many times here, everything is interrelated, globally and regionally.

 

Q: Right, but the difference between what’s happening here and the comparison with Syria is the reaction of the opposition or of those who are “being taken over.” When those who were responsible for taking over government buildings and making this transition arrived from Russia, there was no opposition, correct?

A: Yes. The comparison to Syria was about the failure of the West to carry out the actions and that it sent a message that was perceived as weakness. What actually happened inside Syria was totally different and the origin of it was different as well. There was opposition but many left knowing what was coming and the Ukrainian military offered little resistance as they were overpowered.

 

Q: But when there is a strong opposition, isn’t there naturally a stronger West? When there is a strong voice within the country, the US intervention or support at least looks like it has some potency to it.

A: By the perception of the people in Syria, the West failed them and did not give a strong response. You can’t find a case in any of the upheaval states where the West’s strong support was felt. In Egypt, the voice that was heard was seen to be a contrary voice interpreted by many as supporting the Muslim Brotherhood. It was interpreted as supporting the Muslim Brotherhood in other countries as well. The only place where we interceded was in Libya, and obviously earlier in Iraq and Afghanistan. None of those situations are going well now.

Afghanistan is headed for an election in the first week in April. The United States is being told to get out. The US wants to sign an agreement that would involve a security arrangement allowing an ongoing presence. There is a lot of opposition to it including by President Karzai. That may change. 

In all these recent incidents, you can see the perception of the stance of the West as an unwillingness to stand up, especially in regards to Iran. The Klos C ship was a blatant violation of Security Council resolutions and the sanctions, but no consequence for Iran. There has been no price at all. They ship missiles to terrorists and no one cares. Thousands of people are going from Iraq into Syria to fight, all organized by Iran and its agents. There is never a price and it is open season, so why shouldn’t Putin derive from this that he’ll get nothing more than a slap on the wrist?

If we really want to do something, we should sharply increase oil production and lower the price of oil. Russia is the biggest exporter of oil, so they would pay a heavy price. We’ve done this before. The price of oil dropped so low that the Russians were screaming and yelling. Steps like slapping sanctions on individuals, some of whom have no assets in the United States or say that they don’t care whether they can visit the United States or not, are not that productive. The Russian economy is weak and subject to meaningful actions.

 

Q: Here is an even a greater case for energy independence.

A: We are virtually energy independent, but now I am talking about greater energy export. It is Europe that is really the problem here, because they depend on Russia for their gas especially, and a large part of their oil comes from Russia. Russia is trying to control all of the energy resources going to much of Europe. They are making deals with Iran now that involve an exchange of new reactors for oil. 

There was the gold-for-oil deal that Turkey and others engaged in and which the Russians are involved in. Russia’s goal is to control the flow of all the energy – the gas and oil – into Europe so that they can have an iron clad hold on it. For them, shutting it off means that they lose money too, so it’s not a one-way street.

 

Q: Is that really the only difference between North America and Europe – the energy tie?

A: There is much more. For one, it’s the geography. There are a lot of things that make Europe more valuable.

The issue now is what happens in Moldova and other areas Putin covets. The feeling is that Latvia and Lithuania, while they are subject to pressure, will not be taken over. There are common defense agreements with NATO, while Moldova doesn’t. It has a long history of going back and forth between Russia and Romania, etc.

 

Q: What do the people in Moldova want?

A: I think the people would probably want to sustain their independence. But there are strong ties to Russia and the economic conditions in Moldova are not good, as is the case in the Ukraine. That Russia had bases and forces in Crimea is a somewhat unique circumstance and part of the special arrangements allowing the Russian presence. However, Ukraine’s economic conditions are bad. The West could be saddled with an additional burden of trying to stabilize the Ukraine by having to pour in billions of dollars.

 

Q: I saw a great quote in one of the headlines this week: “It may not be a cold war, but it’s a chilly rivalry.” I believe that one of the reasons it’s only a chilly rivalry is because of the weaker leadership in the United States, compared to when the Cold War was in full swing.

With the humorous approach that the other side is taking towards sanctions, is it time for the US to stop issuing sanctions and making public statements about sanctions?

A: Well, we have to do something and at least the sanctions are a step. Sanctions against Iran have had an impact. Not decisive but certainly it brought them to the negotiating table. The sanctions against Russia are nothing close to those against Iran and many are concerned about the diminution in the impact of the Iranian sanctions given the increased exports and released funds.

The Georgia invasion took place under President Bush and the West was not strong enough in its response and Russia remains in the two areas until today. These are not vital to the West but it set a precedent. We did see a different stance in Cuba by President Kennedy. The messages we gave and the messages we continue to give are the problem.

We may have good reasons for certain actions, but what matters is the perception of it over there and how they see it.

Merkel is portrayed as the closest to taking a strong step, but even there you see the hesitancy and concern about the ramifications. There is unwillingness to lead. No one is suggesting sending in one soldier or doing anything along the Ukrainian border. France had their planes on the tarmacs ready to bomb Syria when the United States had ships there, rady to attack and we pulled back as Syria made the deal to give up its chemical weapons. I would say that France was disappointed and surprised when the United States backed off. We may have good reasons for certain actions, but what matters is the perception of it over there and how our enemies and friends interpret our actions.

There was a big controversy this week because of statements that Minister of Defense Ya’alon made regarding US leadership. He said that he apologized in a conversation with Secretary of Defense Hagel. The administration is saying that it was not enough of an apology and they want more. He did say harsh things in what was supposed to be a closed forum, but it was in front of a large group. He talked about the dangers to Israel and its security. He also discussed the concerns about Iran and said that while he had opposed unilateral Israeli action toward Iran, he now is leaning towards it. There are people who were critical of his words. US-Israel military cooperation has actually been good. Ya’alon is outspoken and made comments regarding the peace process recently as well. Many in Israel agree with him while many feel the US-Israel relationship is too important and right now quite sensitive.

Then Benny Gantz, the Chief of Staff of the IDF, also made some interesting forceful statements that got less coverage. He talked about Israel’s capability of carrying out military operations in Iran, and he said that they had conducted dozens of covert operations and activities last week and continue to do so “as we speak,” which certainly should peak interest.

 

Q: Right. What does that mean? Obviously it didn’t take place in Iran.

A: He said that some were far away and some were closer by. We know what they’ve done in Syria where they’ve carried out some attacks, but Israel has been on alert because of the situation on both the northern and southern borders. 

There was a bomb that was placed on the Syrian border that wounded three soldiers, two mildly and one soldier seriously. Israel retaliated against the Syrian army, even though it was likely carried out by Hezbollah, because the Syrian army is in charge of this area. Israel said that they hold President Assad to account because it’s his responsibility. They hit Hezbollah sites as well. Recently, Israel hit a convoy that was coming to Lebanon with military equipment and Hezbollah said that this attack was retaliation, but they don’t need excuses. 

There is a build-up in Southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has set up an advanced base on the northern side of the Golan to be used to support actions against Israel as well as troops fighting in Syria. Hezbollah faces a serious backlash in Lebanon. There have been six hundred or more of Hezbollah’s troops who have been killed. The resentment on the part of their parents and others continues to grow, but their involvement is so deep in Syria, and obviously their patron, Iran, wants them there. They played a key role in the retaking of a critical village on the Lebanese border that opens up transit routes and may enable the Syrian army, which is still formidable, to take on the rebels, who are so busy fighting each other that they do little damage.

 

Q: Boy, you just went around the region really fast!

A: This is just Syria!

 

Q: Syria continues to deny adamantly any involvement in the bombing that injured the Israeli soldiers. But now I understand where they are coming from. They would blame Hezbollah, but you are saying that it is essentially the same team. 

A: They are elements of the same team, but Syria is the sovereign, and there is a Syrian military presence in the area. It is estimated that 60% of the border with Syria is now controlled today by various rebel groups. This is obviously of major concern to Jordan, to Israel, and to others. 

We know that the border with Iraq is completely open and porous. Some 8,000 to 15,000 Iraqi Shiites have crossed the border and are fighting inside Syria, which is a major concern and another issue that we should talk about. No one even mentions Iraq which is in a civil war or talks about this flow of manpower.

An Iraqi intelligence group said that one of the terrorist groups gets about a million and a half dollars a month from Iran. They’ve done interviews with some of the people in charge of the cemeteries in Najaf, Iraq and elsewhere, and they talked about how they get 3-4 bodies every day of fighters who were killed in Syria. 

 

Q: That indicates cooperation between Iran and Iraq?

A: It indicates Iranian dominance of parts of Iraq, and certainly over the Maliki government, and cooperation with pro-Assad forces in Syria. These are Iraqi Shiites and Iraqi Sunnis who have gone to fight in Syria.

 

Q: What did you think when you heard the news that the biggest Gaza terror tunnel has now been uncovered by the IDF?

A: These are ongoing efforts. The IDF has warned about it. The world doesn’t pay any attention to it. Hamas pays a price only because Israel reacts. The rest of the world talks about having to deal with them and they speculate about conciliatory efforts, but you see the real intent. On both the northern and southern Israeli borders, attempts to kidnap Israeli soldiers are frequent. They want to hold them hostage, and to do what they did with Gilad Shalit to gain release of more prisoners. They want to put Israel on the defensive, because they know how far Israel will go to defend its soldiers and citizens. 

This big tunnel should again be a warning to the West, who keeps saying that Israel has to open up and allow in the cement supply to Gaza. Really? For more tunnels? There is no real shortage of cement. It is just being diverted into building these tunnels. They take huge amounts of cement and cement slabs to line walls. This tunnel went 700 meters into Israel.

 

Q: That’s why I’m glad that there is a video online of this latest one, because we hear “tunnels,” and the vision everyone has is someone taking small instruments and digging out a little thing to crawl through. This is a lot different than that. We’ve joked in the past about what it would be worth if it was in Manhattan, but it’s not a joke. It’s a real facility, and as you described, it’s one that is very sturdy. Until it was uncovered by Israel, it was being put to use to increase terror. 

A: People ask me why they can’t have sonar devices and other things. First of all, it’s a long border. Second of all, they go very deep and they find ways of bypassing whatever detectors are there. 

We’ve seen this week the conflict again between Hamas and the PA. Hamas broke up the demonstration of pro-Abbas, pro-PA groups in Gaza. They arrested fourteen people and the PA arrested forty Hamas people in Nablus. We see the escalation of tension between them. 

We also heard the comments by US officials during Abbas’ visit to Washington that he consistently renounces violence, but then we see the incitement, the blatantly dishonest comments by PA officials including Abbas, and the actions that they keep taking including rejecting all of Israel’s principles for negotiations. When they take one step forward, they take two steps back.

There was a report that Abbas or Shaat said that maybe in the end they can recognize a Jewish state, but then he said that he never said that and that they are never going to recognize it. They put down all the red lines.

Also, Hamas’ economic conditions have worsened, as Egypt has clamped down on them. They are now talking about coming back into Iran’s sphere and cozying up to Iran. We don’t know if the Klos C was intended for Hamas or Islamic Jihad, which is Iran’s main front group in Gaza, or whether it was going to be shared Hamas’ standing certainly has been diminished.

 

Q: Do you think Abbas is handling the whole Israel recognition topic any differently than Arafat would have handled it? I always envisioned Arafat sort of getting out there and saying, “Okay, you want recognition? We recognize Israel.” But Abbas, for whatever reason – maybe it’s bad business for him at home – refuses to give in on any of this.

A: The only difference is that Abbas dresses in a suit, sort of like Rouhani. It’s a different face and a different image, but the policies remain the same. He has done nothing to really move things forward by saying that he would recognize Israel as a Jewish state or by compromising on the right of return. The more he puts these markers down, the more he puts it in such absolute terms, the harder it will be to negotiate or to come to some sort of agreement or understanding. And what is the demand? The demand always is that Israel release the fourth batch of prisoners, and if Israel doesn’t do that, they will go to the United Nations. Nothing about PA responsibility. They come to the table to take not give.

 

Q: How many prisoners are in that batch?

A: The last batch is 29.

 

Q: What is the likelihood of them being released?

A: Right now, it’s very low. Even Tzipi Livni, the Minister of Justice, who is in charge of the peace negotiations, said that there can’t be a release now if there is no agreement to extend talks. 

We see that the talks in the United States between Abbas and President Obama did not go very far and did not seem to make much progress. Secretary Kerry is still very involved trying to move it, but there is a deadline coming up on March 29^th, when they were supposed to reach some sort of an understanding, at least for an extension till the end of the year.

 

Q: Would someone like Livni say that with the previous three releases there was a framework?

A: There were negotiations going on. They were engaged and she therefore said that it was justified. In this release, you would have guys with a lot of blood on their hands getting out. She, let alone the Prime Minister and others, said that they should not do it unless the PA commits to extending the talks and not taking unilateral actions. 

 

Q: Is this the most criminal of all the groups?

A: Yes, even though some of the others were pretty bad and some of them have already been rearrested. Now Abbas is demanding the release of Barghouti and others. Barghouti has five life sentences.

 

Q: Do you think he will ever be part of a prisoner release, or is that a red line they will never cross?

A: Israel says they will not release him now. Will they not ever? I don’t know.

By the way, one story that got almost no attention in which I was involved was the information that the Mossad put out about the eight Iranian Jews who tried to cross the border of Iran to escape abetted by smugglers, about twenty years ago. They were now declared to be dead and the former Chief Rabbi Bakshi Doron issued a p’sak on it. The evidence that they were able to put together applies to light, unfortunately there are three who are still unaccounted for.

 

Q: Meaning that the last time they were seen was in Iran and then they just disappeared as they tried to escape?

A: Yes. There were smugglers who routinely did this and at times robbed their clients. They generally took mostly younger people across the Pakistani border. These are very unsavory characters and it was always risky. There were cases of people who were killed or were robbed or were left penniless and destitute by the smugglers. But in this case, there were periodic sightings of the individuals. There were people who came to me with evidence about them. But nothing was conclusive and it appears they were not jailed as some thought.

I even met several times with Zarif, who is now the Foreign Minister. He was then ambassador to the UN. I went to him to enlist his help and he promised me certain things, but, of course, he didn’t come through, denying any knowledge of the eleven.

 

Q: In those meetings, someone like Zarif would say that they simply have no idea about their whereabouts?

 

A: They say that they’ll look into it. I gave him names of prisons, of sites, of people who would know and were contacts. Every time, the answer came back months later that they have no information on it.

There is another story regarding Iran that is really remarkable. US satellites picked up a mock copy of the USS Lincoln, which is a Nimitz-Class US aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf whose number is 68. The mock ship that they have has fake planes on it and carries the number 68. It still is in dry dock, but it’s to be towed to the Persian Gulf from the shipyard. It is about two thirds the size of the real carrier.

 

Q: What is the purpose?

A: That is a good question. This is not the first time that we’ve seen them do something like this but not an aircraft carrier. They have played havoc with our ships with their fast boats in the Gulf and we are talking about destroyers that are in the Persian Gulf. This copy of the USS Abraham Lincoln is really a big barge. The Fifth Fleet people call it the Target Barge. It could be used by Iran for propaganda value, where they will show how they blew up this mock ship or bomb it and say that they hit the real thing. It is intimidation, but it is probably meant for diversionary and propaganda purposes. 

They have done things like this in the past, but never on this scale. People will laugh because it is sort of funny. It is a big barge and you can’t really land planes on it or take off from it, but it just tells you the degree to which Iran will go. A country that is supposedly suffering under the sanctions can divert resources for this. Is this really a serious partner for negotiations?

 

Q: What gets me is that any kid with iMovie can go ahead and create a video of the Lincoln being exploded. This is really going to a great extent if that is the reason they are doing it.

A: Yes, but they are playing in the real world and have nefarious goals. They have remotely piloted planes, types of drones, with surveillance pods that also could carry rockets. We know that Hezbollah has them, too, which is why Israel is developing the “Iron Beam”, which is a means to shoot down drones, especially those that can carry heavy payloads across the border from Lebanon to Israel. You can’t use Iron Dome against them; this will be a laser system that can take these drones down. 

 

Q: What do you think of Harvard students going to Arafat’s grave?

A: It is part of a pattern that we see. I don’t blame them; I blame those who organized it. They did issue a statement yesterday that I thought was much better than anything that had been said till now, explaining that they didn’t mean to pay homage to him and they certainly wouldn’t have, and that this was just part of the trip. But for the young people who are on it, it does have that impact.  Clearly that is not the appropriate site for a group photo. And the pictures now being circulated on Twitter and Facebook go to countless numbers of people. 

It shows the diminution of understanding and of sensitivity, if not worse. I think the statement tries to clarify it. They are saying that this was an educational trip and they went there to meet people from the PA to understand all sides. I don’t see those other side being concerned about giving balanced views! I don’t see them taking people to Rabin’s grave when they bring missions. The PA brings groups to the area to propagandize them and enlist them in BDS. 

This week we again saw the impact of the propaganda campaign and the BDS movement. The student government of Loyola in Chicago voted 26 to 0 to divest from seven companies like Caterpillar and SodaStream and others that do business in the West Bank in Israel. People think that this is a marginal concern, but it is not. There is a cumulative affect. We established the National Task Force on Delegitimization, as we did on Iran, because these are real concerns and they have real manifestations in the United States as they do abroad.

 

Q: You were able to provide an analysis last week regarding the rockets coming in from the south and how the Gaza area is being dominated by terrorist groups. Seven days later, is it any quieter in that region?

A: It is somewhat quieter. Israel struck back effectively. But it is not over and the Hamas-Islamic Jihad and Hamas-Fatah rivalries and the worsening economic conditions as Egypt clamps down, will likely lead to an escalation. 

We have another concern about Jews in the Ukraine. There are reports about blood in the streets. While there have been a few incidents and tension is high, these exaggerated reports are not true. Obviously, what could happen there is of great concern. Also of concern is the situation of the Jews in Venezuela because of the unrest and the disruptions. The demonstrations and counter measures that are taking place there are of great concern. There is still a significant Jewish community there that we are working with and that people should be concerned about. The unrest that we see in the Middle East could easily be replicated in South America as well. Venezuela is a key location and potentially very explosive and could impact other countries nearby as well.

 

Q: Thank you, Malcolm.

• • • • •

Malcolm Hoenlein is the Executive Vice Chairman of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations. The column presented here contains edited excerpts of Malcolm’s weekly interview conducted by Nachum Segal. The entire interview can be heard live at 7:45 a.m. every Friday morning in the New York area on the JM in the AM program, broadcast on radio station 91.1 FM.